Chicago (US), January3: CBOT agricultural futures scored new multiyear price highs in the past week.
Chicago-based research company AgResource predicts higher agricultural futures as the U.S. dollar continues to slide.
The company is expecting new funds rushing into agricultural markets in coming weeks.
Spot CBOT corn found a new 6.5-year high and easily traded through chart resistance at 4.65 dollars per bushel. AgResource holds that the next resistance lies at 5.00-5.20 dollars, which may be tested in the next 30 days.
Drought in Argentina is worsening and soil moisture reserves available for safrinha corn seeding in Brazil in late February will be at the lower end of normal. Meanwhile, a new threat to global supply and demand has emerged as the Argentine government has suspended new sales of corn between now and March 1. AgResource calculates that this alone will add 115-140 million bushels to 2020-2021 U.S. exports. More importantly, this opens the door to further government intervention if Argentine crop fails to reach 44-45 million metric tons.
If the drought in Argentina continues into February, final 2021 Argentine corn production will be 40 million metric tons. AgResource predicts U.S. outlook stays bullish, as U.S. corn is "cheap" in the world marketplace.
Spot CBOT wheat futures rallied to a fresh six-year high. World cash markets continue to rise to meet Russian offers. Moreover, the pace of U.S. export sales implies the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 985-million-bushel forecast is 15-25 million bushels low.
U.S. winter wheat seedings are expected to rise 1.0-1.2 million acres in 2021. However, U.S. wheat stocks will be contracting amid reduced carryover supply. U.S. hard red winter (HRW) wheat stocks are projected to fall another 100-120 million bushels even with normal weather.
AgResource holds that there's very limited room for Northern Hemisphere wheat yield loss in 2021. The wheat market will be closely following Russian weather conditions in April and May.
Soybean futures finished above 13.00 dollars, the best monthly close since June 2014.
AgResource holds the coming January USDA crop report will be the arbiter of speed that U.S. demand rationing needs to occur. The marketplace cannot withstand any fall in supply.
AgResource stays bullish, as daily South American weather forecasts and whether U.S. demand rationing is occurring will be watched closely.